By Keith Wallis - South China Morning Post, 10 May 2011
Paul Griffiths, a former senior executive of Dragonair and now chief executive of fast-growing Dubai Airports, warned yesterday that Hong Kong faces losing its leading trade and aviation role if it failed to invest in a third runway at Chek Lap Kok airport.
Griffiths, who was also instrumental in launching direct flights between Hong Kong and London for Virgin Atlantic Airways, said if growth was constrained then Hong Kong could lose traffic to other hubs - regional cities including Singapore and Seoul and global aviation centres such as Dubai.
He said a failure by Hong Kong to invest in additional infrastructure, including a third runway, to meet projected demand would likely lead to a shift by airlines and passengers away from Hong Kong. This in turn would hurt the city economically.
Carriers "would go somewhere else and go somewhere else permanently", he said. Cathay Pacific had developed into a good, home-based carrier with an enviable brand, but if growth was constrained "it can't be good for the company or the region".
"People will vote with their feet and go elsewhere. I think for Hong Kong there is a lot of danger of that happening," Griffiths said.
Several other senior figures in the aviation world have backed building a third runway. They include Martin Broughton, the chairman of British Airways, and Giovanni Bisignani, director general and chief executive of the International Airline Transport Association. Both warned Hong Kong could lose its economic competitiveness and international connectivity without a third runway.
Pointing to the growth of Dubai airport, Griffiths said: "Over the next decade, passenger traffic will climb 7.2 per cent annually to 98.5 million, while cargo volumes will increase at an annual average of 6.7 per cent to 4.1 million tonnes.
"This year we will handle 50 million passengers. We will be overtaking Hong Kong for the No 3 spot in a year or two."
He said Dubai would go on to beat London and Paris to become the busiest international passenger airport by 2015.
To cope with the forecast growth, Dubai will expand the existing airport to 90 million passengers by 2018. It will build the world's largest airport - Dubai World Central - 35 kilometres from the existing airport over the next 20 years.
Explaining the reasons for such expansion, Griffiths said: "It's the alignment of national ambition, coupled with liberal government policies and a lack of intervention in the commercial operations of the companies in the sector that has created the environment for tremendous growth."
He said there were similarities between Dubai and Hong Kong: both were major trading centres and while Dubai had India as its biggest market, Hong Kong had the mainland.
Griffiths said he understood in-depth discussions surrounding the proposed third runway at Hong Kong were about to begin in earnest. He urged the balance of benefit and impact be carefully considered when making a decision.
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