By Cathy Buyck - Air Transport World, 17 February 2012
The number of passengers carried by airlines in the Asia/Pacific region will grow by 5.9% annually over the next 20 years, well above the global average of 4.8%, according to the latest market forecast by Airbus.
The amount of cargo carried in the region is expected to post a 5.5% annual growth, compared to a global increase of around 5.1%.
Speaking in Singapore, Airbus COO-customers John Leahy said the Asia/Pacific travel market would overtake the European and North American markets. "In 2030, the region's airlines will fly one-third of global RPKs, while the share of North American carriers will drop to 20% and the share of Europe's airlines to 23%."
The rapid growth translates to an anticipated need of around 9,370 new aircraft over the next 20 years, according to the Airbus forecast. Valued at $1.3 trillion, deliveries will account for 34% of all new aircraft with more than 100 seats entering service worldwide over the forecast period. Around 3,650 of the newly acquired aircraft will be widebodies—or 42% of all widebody deliveries worldwide—of which some 730 will be very large aircraft, according to Airbus.
The European manufacturer sees demand for single-aisle aircraft in the region accelerating in the coming years, largely driven by the significant incremental growth in the low-cost sector.
In the cargo sector, the region will continue to dominate the global market. According to the new forecast, the dedicated freighter fleet operated by Asia/Pacific airlines will grow from 300 today to some 820 in 2030, representing 30% of the global freighter fleet. While many of the aircraft will be converted from passenger models, Airbus predicts that around 210 new production freighters will be delivered to the region over the next two decades.
Asia/Pacific airlines have 1,700 aircraft on order with Airbus. This represents 38% of the company's total backlog.
The Airbus forecast for the region's airlines is slightly less ambitious than Boeing's, which predicts a 7% annual growth in passenger numbers and the need for 11,450 additional aircraft valued at $1.5 trillion by 2030 (ATW Daily News, Feb. 14).
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