Sign of the Times ...recommends industry activists to review this abridged/highlighted clip from Bloomberg.com which shows air passenger growth forecasts in the US continue to slip.(Posted 12 March 2010)
Air passenger growth forecasts in the US continue to slip, projections for Asia continue to grow-Comments by Martin Craigs 12.3.2010
In March 2001 the FAA predicted that the US airline passenger market would surpass 1 billion by 2010...that headline number has been continuously pushed back in the past decade, with the billion pax p.a. now only expected by 2023.
Meanwhile, whilst we are talking big numbers, the 20 year market forecasts for airliner deliveries to Asia/Pacific have remorselessly increased in the past 10 years. The most recent Airbus/Boeing forecast, foresees a need for US$1.2 TRILLION of new airliner deliveries to 2029. My point, there has never been a more important moment, to ensure that the overall political environment for aerospace growth in Asia Pacific remains positive. (Fast trains and weak politicians are two threats)
As flagged up many times in recent years at AFA events and on line, the supply chain to the TRILLION DOLLAR market for civil airliners have a clear and present vested interest, to support their airline customers and minimise the external threats to their healthy growth.External advocacy for aviation is not as well coordinated or supported, as for other TRILLION DOLLAR businesses such as read banking,insurance and oil. Does this show up in terms of government attitudes to different business sectors in the USA and Europe ?
You be the judge...and if you want to help to make a difference, consider being an AFA sponsor and activist...look around our recently updated website and see where you want to add value, assist your customers and protect your proud profession.
My recent encounters with APEC/ASEAN and various individual Asian governments is that they do not want to have legislation and taxation exported into Asia, from "the old world". So help to effect change or be afflicted by it.......ITS YOUR BUSINESS. SPEAK UP
U.S. Air Passenger Growth Slows in Sluggish Economy
Bloombergs.com 9 March,2010
- HIGHLIGHTS for AFA-
U.S. airline passenger numbers will reach 1 billion in 2023, two years later than projected, because of slow economic growth, the Federal Aviation Administration said.
The revision in the agency’s annual forecast follows an “unprecedented” drop in operations last year, when take-offs and landings fell 10.4 percent, said Nan Shellabarger, the agency’s director of aviation policy and plans.
“We’re faced with an economic scenario we haven’t seen in my time in the forecasting business,” Shellabarger told reporters in a briefing in Washington. “There is no rapid recovery in demand predicted.”
The revision marks the third consecutive year the FAA has pushed back the expected date for 1 billion passengers, a milepost that compares with 704 million for the fiscal year that ended in September and the lowest in five years.
The global airline industry will take at least three years to recover from a travel slump, the IATA said last month.
U.S. airlines lost $60 billion from 2001 to 2009, according to the Air Transport Association, a trade group for U.S. carriers including Delta Air Lines Inc., AMR Corp.’s American Airlines and Southwest Airlines Co.
The FAA conducts the annual forecast to help plan its long- term needs for staffing and equipment.
Consumer spending and economic growth will be “sluggish,” with gross domestic product rising 1.5 percent in the fiscal year that began Oct. 1, the FAA said. The agency projected 2.4 percent GDP growth in the 2010 forecast issued last year.
The agency also forecast today that unemployment will remain high and oil prices will exceed 2009 levels in the near term.
U.S. carriers have slashed costs by parking 500 planes and eliminating more than 30,000 jobs over the past two years. The group should return to profitability as the business cycle improves, Chase said.
Take-offs and landings will fall 2.7 percent in the current fiscal year, the FAA projects. Domestic enplanements, or the number of passengers on planes, will rise 0.4 percent this year and 2.5 percent annually during the 20-year period, the agency said.
International enplanements will increase 0.9 percent this year and will reach an average of 4.1 percent for the remainder of the forecast period, the FAA said.
The FAA has pushed back its forecast for reaching 1 billion passengers several times in the past decade.
In 2001, six months before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the FAA said the country would surpass 1 billion passengers by this year. In 2002, the FAA slid the projection to 2013. In 2008, the agency moved it to 2016 from 2015. Last year, the FAA moved the milepost to 2021 from 2016.
Footnote: AFA provides the above info/INSIGHT pieces several times a week as a courtesy to AFA members and associates... the items selected are chosen only from the most influential sources and provided on a "in case you missed this" easy to access basis. The stories are abridged to focus primarily on ASIA/PACIFIC area issues and are chosen to highlight significant trends. We are not attempting to duplicate the many breaking news or search services provided by specialist publications. AFA info/INSIGHT aims to distill the best public commentary for use in its internal industry debates and external industry advocacy. As with all AFA activities this service is not intended to promote any one product or service but rather a greater appreciation of civil aviations challenging role as the REAL World Wide Web.
