AFA - Aerospace Forum Asia

Industry Leader Luncheon
Mr. Clay Jones, Director & Chairman, President & CEO, Rockwell Collins
Headland Hotel, Cathay City, Hong Kong

Technology Leadership
Is the Space Race a Leading Indicator?

First, let me thank you for inviting me to speak at your monthly luncheon. The issues addressed by the Aerospace Forum Asia at its monthly luncheons are critical issues for the entire aerospace industry and it is important for members of the industry to have an information source to serve all sectors of the industry. It is encouraging to note the Forum’s recognition of the importance of aerospace to stimulating the economies of both China and the United States. Rockwell Collins is proud to be a participating member of the Forum.

When Lt. Col Yang Liwei was launched into space from China’s Jiuquan launch site on October 15, 2003, returning after 16 orbits around the Earth, China achieved a significant technological and strategic milestone. Regionally, launching a man into orbit is a technical feat not achieved by any of the other regional space contenders and it carries with it significant leadership connotations. Internationally, China has joined an exclusive club of countries capable of manned space flight. China has once again demonstrated in this challenging technological feat that it is now “playing with the big boys.? By making this bold political decision to accelerate space-related activities, China has clearly advanced its domestic pride, international prestige, and economic development.

For over a century, investments in aerospace technology have transformed the way citizens of all countries live, work, and play. Today, we routinely travel thousands of miles by air in a matter of hours; mail and cargo can be delivered almost anywhere in the world overnight; people can communicate with others around the world instantaneously; and air and space systems play a integral role in our national security and homeland defense. Satellites monitor the health of the planet and its atmosphere and provide global information about the weather; robotic spacecraft visit the planets; space telescopes look back at the origins of the solar systems; and the International Space Station serves as the first permanent international habitat in space.

Since the first flight of the Wright brothers a hundred years ago and the first rocket launch of Dr. Robert Goddard in 1926, the U.S. Aerospace industry has played an increasingly strategic role in society. It is the generator of wealth as a major source of high paying jobs and has created and spun off a variety of technology-based markets. It has helped the U.S. maintain its global competitiveness as the largest source of exports measured by dollars. Some economists estimate that up to half of U.S. economic growth over the past five decades is due to advances in technology, much of it directly or indirectly created by investments in aerospace research.

The recent Commission on the Future of the U.S. Aerospace Industry was directed by Congress to assess our current status and future prospects of leadership in this important sector. You may recall that the Commission met with the AmCham- China in April 2002. The Final Report of this Commission, issued in November 2002, raised concerns about the decline in US government aerospace and aeronautics research spending, and suggested that the lack of coordination among various government funding entities could undermine U.S. dominance in aerospace. Among its other findings, the Commission noted that the United States has no national space imperative, no integrated national aerospace consensus to guide policies and programs, and no alignment across government agencies to develop R&D programs that will ensure that the U.S. stays at the forefront of aviation and space exploration.

This report is an important "wake up call" to all stakeholders in the U.S. aerospace community. History has shown that government investment in aeronautics and space technology is absolutely proportional to progress and crucial to sustained leadership. Technologies and systems in use today are the result of R&D investments made 20 or more years ago. The U.S. is just now beginning to see the effects of the R&D budget declines of the 1990’s in our space program, air traffic control system capabilities, technological parity of foreign-built aircraft, and the aging infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the U.S. faces increasing competition that would challenge its traditional leadership in this area. In their "Vision 2020", the European Union has stated that it intends to dominate the commercial aviation global market by 2020 through investment in aeronautics R&D. The Vision 2020 program seeks to coordinate research and manufacture of European-produced aerospace products among its member states. The program also sets specific market-share targets for European-produced civil and military aerospace products in world markets. The EU has also targeted aerospace R&D in the European Sixth Framework Programme, which calls for better use of research efforts through the creation of an internal market for science and technology and consolidating and concentrating R&D efforts.

The Programme also offers funds for international partners in all areas of scientific research. In fact, the EU and China have signed a Technology Agreement under the 6th Framework Programme. And in other areas of the world, we see Japan and India have also set out clear objectives aimed at improving the security and economic well being of its citizens through a strong, coordinated R&D program in aerospace and aeronautics.

Recognizing the importance of aerospace technologies to its economic development and national security goals, China has long aspired to be a world power in aerospace. The development of space activities is encouraged and supported by the government as an integral part of China’s comprehensive development strategy. Aerospace projects were highlighted in China’s 8th, 9th, and 10th Five-Year Plans. The 10th 5-Year Plan includes funding that is three times the total of the previous fifteen years. China’s recent manned space flight success makes it clear that the Chinese government attaches great importance to the significant role of aerospace in implementing a strategy of revitalizing the country with science and education development.

Now, compare China’s recent success with the current situation in the U.S. The tragic loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia and her crew on February 1, 2003 has focused attention on the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), its declining budgets and issues in the U.S. manned space flight program. In its Final Report the Aerospace Commission noted that: "We (the US) stand dangerously close to squandering the advantage bequeathed to us by prior generations of aerospace leaders." Among its recommendations was that the United States again create a space imperative.

It can be argued that not since President John F. Kennedy and the Apollo program has the United States had a visionary space policy. The Space Shuttle, first launched in 1981, provides the only capability in the United States for human access to space. Recently the space shuttle’s primary job has been construction and resupply of the International Space Station and servicing the Hubble Space Telescope. With the Space Shuttle temporarily grounded following the Columbia accident, the U.S. is now relying on Russia to ferry crews and supplies to the International Space Station.

But, does this rise of international competition mean that the U.S. is in a new race for space? I think the answer is "No." In terms of technology and potential, the U.S. still holds the unqualified first place. But, as the Aerospace Commission pointed out, the U.S. stands to lose its preeminent position if it does not adopt a strategic vision for manned space flight, and provide adequate funding for the research and development needed to revitalize and reenergize U.S. space policy to maintain a strong and growing U.S. space transportation system, several changes will be required in U.S. national space policy and the way it is implemented. The U.S. aerospace industry agrees with the Aerospace Commission recommendations and believes the U.S. government must not only increase funding on space transportation R&D and comprehensively address the Space Shuttle’s investment needs until a replacement is developed, but must also implement innovative arrangements to encourage additional commercial investment.

The Aerospace Industries Association, a U.S. trade group representing every facet of the aerospace industry, recently adopted its new 5-year R&D plan.

I was privileged to chair the AIA committee that worked on this plan. Our analysis identified a number of problems surrounding aeronautics and aerospace R&D, including some identified by the Aerospace Commission, such as a lack of a national space imperative and flat NASA budgets for space flight capabilities and aeronautics and declining Federal Aviation Administration budgets. The U.S. aerospace industry is asking for an additional $38 billion over the Administration’s requests to continue research efforts to fund several long-term aerospace efforts including, air traffic modernization, space shuttle modernization and flying a space shuttle replacement by 2010. This additional funding amounts to a 9% increase from what is planned to be allocated over the next five years.

We have developed an implementation plan to see that the goals we have set are carried forward with industry leadership and support. We will encourage NASA to work with other government agencies in developing its R&D plans and to encourage the U.S. government, in cooperation with industry, to develop a national imperative that preserves U.S. aerospace leadership.

We are pleased by the recent remarks of President Bush at the Commemoration of the 100th Anniversary of the Wright Brothers First Flight. Reflecting on how the U.S. has excelled in every aspect of flight from aviation to space since that first flight of the Wright Brothers, the President said that: "We will continue to lead the world in flight." This is an encouraging acknowledgement from the Administration on the importance of aerospace investment.

That said, industry is awaiting the high-level space directive promised after the Columbia accident investigation that is to clearly define U.S. government plans and strategy for moving the United States' manned space program forward. We hope the U.S. Government will accept the challenge presented by the recent Chinese manned space flight success. U.S industry stands ready to assist in maintaining U.S. pre-eminence in aeronautics and aerospace and we welcome China into that exclusive club of countries that have achieved the stunning milestone of a space-faring nation.